what we lost, who we lost, or that we lost…

UPDATE:

I don’t mean to gloat, but some of my words from last year seem awfully prescient now:

I’m going to go ahead and predict that iran will roll up influence across the Arab world after each of these Arab countries disposes of their dictator. While the Iranians have the good sense not to attack the US directly, they don’t have the good sense not to try and start WW3 by nuking israel. The result of this will not be good. Particularly since we’re broke. We don’t have the money to rectify this mistake, even if we had the will, which we most certainly do not have. The best we can hope for here is that the Iranian roll-up of the Middle East doesn’t start WW3, and that we have enough new energy sources to bring online within the US and Canada that we will be able to safely ignore the middle east for some time.

Let’s just get right to it:

Q: Who will be the Republican nominee for President:
A: Mitt Romney

Q: Who will win the apparent Romney-Obama matchup?
A: Obama.

Q: What will the electoral map look like?
A: Almost identical to 2008, though Florida may flip to the Republican column. NH will also flip. I should emphasize that this is true if Romney is the nominee, as predicted above. If Romney is not the nominee, then the electoral map will be very different.

Q: Will the Euro survive 2012?
A: Probably, though it will be very weak by year’s end.

Q: Will Scott Brown win re-election?
A: No, but it will be a close election.

Q: Who will Ron Paul endorse in the general election?
A: He will not endorse either the Republican nominee nor Gary Johnson.

Q: What percentage of the vote will Gary Johnson get in 2012?
A: Around 2%. He will break 1 million votes.

Q: Will SOPA pass and be put in to law?
A: Yes.

Q: Will the next major terrorist attack be carried out by Americans against their own government?
A: Yes, though it certainly won’t happen until after the election, and not likely to happen in 2012.

Q: What price will Bitcoins be in $US at year end?
A: $50

I should revisit the things I predicted in 2011. What will the official unemployment rate be on December 31, 2011?

Q: What will the official unemployment rate be on December 31, 2011?
A: Between 9% and 9.5%.
Reality: The official number is 8.5%, but it will likely be revised upwards. Of course, Shadowstats says it’s more like 15%.

Q: Where will the Dow close at next year?
A: Under 12,000.
Reality: Closed at 12,200.

Q: Will Apple’s new Verizon iPhone be 3G or 4G?
A: 3G. Expect 4G phones to be released over the summer.
Reality: No 4g phone has been released by Apple, on Verizon or elsewhere.

Q: Name the top three candidates the Republican establishment will back for the 2012 Presidential nomination:
A: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune.
Reality: It’s Romney.

Q: Name the top three Republicans the Tea Party will get behind for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination:
A: Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels.
Reality: None of my picks chose to run. So the Tea Party vote appears to be split.

Q: Will an Android Tablet catch up to the iPad in sales this year?
A: Not a chance. Maybe 2012 if they’re lucky.
Reality: No Android tablet.

Q: Name three things that will jump the shark in 2011:
A: Silly Bands, Lady Gaga, Brick and Mortar Bookstores
Reality: I have no idea if Silly Bands jumped the shark. Lady Gaga appears to still be going strong, but brick and mortar bookstores are certainly a thing of the past.

Q: Will the home market enter a double dip recession next year? Will it recover?
A: No and no. The market will remain stagnant through the next year.
Reality: I appear to be on target here.

Q: Will we be out of the recession next year, from a colloquial, average man on the street point of view?
A: No. People are really tired of this recession, and may start making business decisions again, but the economy will not be in enough of a recovery such that the average man on the street feels good again.
Reality: The recession continues unabated.

Q: Will I become a father again in 2011?
A: Yes, sometime around July 17.
Reality: It happened on July 22.

I’ll post some new predictions in a bit.

I invented a new burger for McDonald’s in my sleep last night. I thought I would share it with all of you.

The idea is basically a Big Mac with the central bun substituted for a layer of Mac and Cheese. The mac and cheese would be baked in thin sheets, with a generous helping of breadcrumbs on top for that extra crunch. The mac and cheese would be cut into burger sized portions, and reside in between the two patties inside the middle of the Big Mac.

I really like this idea. I should hope someone at McDonald’s sees this and decides to run with it.

Ok, let’s try our hand at ten predictions for 2011. It’s probably a good idea to bet against be as my predictions were so wrong last year. You can let me know if you agree with my predictions or not in the comments, and if you have anything you’d like me to prognosticate about, ask me in the comments, on twitter or in the formspring form in the sidebar.

So without further adieu:

1. Q: What will the official unemployment rate be on December 31, 2011?
   A: Between 9% and 9.5%.
2. Q: Where will the Dow close at next year?
   A: Under 12,000.
3. Q: Will Apple’s new Verizon iPhone be 3G or 4G?
   A: 3G. Expect 4G phones to be released over the summer.
4. Q: Name the top three candidates the Republican establishment will back for the 2012 Presidential nomination:
   A: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune.
5. Q: Name the top three Republicans the Tea Party will get behind for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination:
   A: Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels.
6. Q: Will an Android Tablet catch up to the iPad in sales this year?
   A: Not a chance. Maybe 2012 if they’re lucky.
7. Q: Name three things that will jump the shark in 2011:
   A: Silly Bands, Lady Gaga, Brick and Mortar Bookstores
8. Q: Will the home market enter a double dip recession next year? Will it recover?
   A: No and no. The market will remain stagnant through the next year.
9. Q: Will we be out of the recession next year, from a colloquial, average man on the street point of view?
   A: No. People are really tired of this recession, and may start making business decisions again, but the economy will not be in enough of a recovery such that the average man on the street feels good again.
10. Q: Will I become a father again in 2011?
    A: Yes, sometime around July 17.

I failed to generate any Christmas post this year or even a New Year’s retrospective as I’ve done every year since I’ve been blogging. I suppose I could still do that, but the new year is over. However, I should at least have the decency to review my predictions from last year. I did pretty terribly:

1. Q: What will the official unemployment rate be on December 31, 2010?
   A: Above 10%.
   Result: Close but wrong. It’s hovering under 10% as of year end, at least according to official numbers.
2. Q: Where will the Dow close at next year?
   A: Under 10,000.
   Result: Wrong again, Dow closed the year at 11,577.
3. Q: What will the price of gold be on December 31, 2010?
   A: Close to $2,000/oz.
   Result: Wrong again. Gold closed the year at about $1400/oz.
4. Q: Assuming Apple releases a tablet computing device this year, will it be revolutionary like the iPhone, or an also-ran like the appleTV?
   A: Also ran like the appleTV.
   Result: Wrong again. The iPad is revolutionary, and is inspiring many competitors. They’ve defined a new category.
5. Q: How close will the special Senate election in Massachusetts be? Will Scott Brown be able to beat Democrat Martha Coakley?
   A: Within 10%. Scott Brown will narrowly lose the race.
   Results: Wrong again. Scott Brown won, and is the Senator from Massachusetts.
6. Q: Will the Republicans gain control of the house or senate in 2010?
   A: Yes and yes.
   Results: Right and wrong. They have control of the House, not the Senate. Though one might argue that they have de-facto control of the Senate.
7. Q: Will Harry Reid or Barbara Boxer keep their senate seats in 2010?
   A: No and yes.
   Results: Wrong and right. Both kept their seats, incredibly enough.
8. Q: Name three things that will jump the shark in 2010?
   A: Congressional Democrats, the TSA, facebook.
   Results: Right, Right and Wrong. Facebook keeps going strong. But the TSA has turned themselves into a laughing stock. Groping genitals made them jump the shark, and I expect that the new congress will legislate changes to the TSA.
9. Q: Will Janet Napolitano keep her job in 2010? Will Hillary Clinton?
   A: No and yes.
   Results: Wrong and right. Though Napolitano deserves to go, Obama won’t cut her. And Hillary remained as predicted.
10. Q: Will confidence in the US dollar erode, or will hyperinflation occur in 2010?
    A: If it does, it will be an all-at-once event. It will not be a gradual occurrence.
    Results: It didn’t happen, but I maintain that if it should happen, it will happen all of a sudden, not gradually.

So that’s it. A pretty awful round of predictions all told. I’ll see if I have some time to come up with some new ones before the week is out. Happy New Year everybody!

Are we feeling balanced today? Today is the Fall Equinox. There’s one tree on my street turning color already.

I do love the fall.

I write like
David Foster Wallace

I Write Like by Mémoires, Mac journal software. Analyze your writing!

Via the Presurfer.

Check out this fat guy reading the Declaration of Independence, on an iPad no less…

More pics here.

UPDATE: Marshall’s write-up is here.