The recent central artery tunnel built in Boston, more commonly known as the “Big Dig”, has major safety issues which raise serious economic questions:

An internationally renowned specialist hired to solve the Big Dig’s leak problems has left the project, saying he was denied information about the situation and can no longer say that the tunnels are safe.

The remarks by George J. Tamaro, a leading slurry-wall specialist, were made just days after another independent engineer, Jack K. Lemley, said he, too, was blocked from obtaining crucial data and could no longer vouch for the safety of the tunnels.

In his resignation letter, dated March 16 and obtained by the Globe, Tamaro wrote that he is “totally uninformed on the current status of work” to repair the leaks and “has received nothing from the project team for about two months.” Tamaro also wrote that he fears that his affiliation with the mega project and lack of access to information may “jeopardize my credibility and the credibility of my firm.”

Ok, so we really can’t know for sure what’s going on here, but when I drive through the tunnel and see three foot icicles hanging from the seams in the ceiling, I at least think it’s pretty damn serious. So let’s look at what might happen here.

When the tunnel was first constructed, the original bypass, a elevated highway of sorts, was left standing so as to let traffic continue relatively unabated. The government had considered simply stopping traffic altogether while the tunnel was dug as doing so would have expedited construction enormously, but it was determined that the economic loss that local business would have suffered would have been greater than the cost savings from faster construction would have been, so they left the skyway up while building the tunnel.

Unfortunately, that skyway has since been torn down. There is no longer any real redundancy available should the tunnel need to be shut down for repairs.

Which begs the question as to what will happen should the tunnel need to be shut down for repairs. Specifically, I’m concerned about what will happen to real estate prices.

Any announcement that the big dig needs to be shut down for repairs for a certain length of time will be met with almost certain skepticism. Given how much longer the tunnel took to build than initial estimates, people will almost certainly assume that any repairs will require double or even triple the length of time announced. Since the big dig affects those who live north and south of the city, and not those who live due west, I believe that the immediate effect would be to depress the price of real estate to the north and south of the city, and increase its price in metro-west. This could happen quite rapidly, as residents of the northern and southern suburbs quickly tire of the commute problems posed by the closure of the tunnel, and quickly decide to move either to metro-west or out of the region altogether. I suspect that South Boston will also be affected.

Metro-west prices will rise rapidly as a result, as the demand for inventory skyrockets from those in the north and south shores look to move there. But soon, they will be priced out of an already overpriced market. The Wall Street Journal already predicts an approximate 10% yearly price appreciation for the area in 2005, and a jump of 20% or more would not be out of the question.

The big question is what would businesses that rely on the tunnel being open do? I believe that they may hasten a move out of Boston, as the economic disruptions caused by the changes in the real estate market become too much to deal with. They may move up to Nashua, NH, a border city which is already a shopping mecca due to the lack of a sales tax in New Hampshire. Or they may move out of the area altogether, disgusted by the political climate that allowed this to happen, a climate which shows no signs of changing. Should that happen, the rise in real estate prices in metro-west would prove short lived, and the entire Boston area may be in for a general economic recession.

Nothing is for certain, and the tunnel may be safe for all I can tell. But I wouldn’t bet on it. The feds are looking into the matter, which will only delay resolution.

Read the whole article here.

This entry was posted on Saturday, March 19th, 2005 at 11:11 pm and is filed under News & Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.