So it looks like we should probably expect the Pope to kick it in the next few weeks:
One of Germany’s leading cardinals admitted last night that the Pope is “in a bad way”, fueling speculation that the 83-year-old may have only weeks to live.
Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, one of the Pope’s closest advisers, said the pontiff was seriously ill and added bluntly: “We should pray for the Pope.”
So since there’s been so much horse-race speculation lately on who would win the democratic presidential primary, I figure it might be fun to speculate about the new pope. So let’s review a few facts:
–> Italians make up 20% of the of the papal electors
–> The Pope has just approved the addition of 31 new cardinals, all of whom are expected to be conservative
–> I’ve read (some time ago, sorry, no link) that the Italian cardinals are pissed about the increasing presence of Muslims on the Italian peninsula
–> The Catholic Church is becoming primarily a church of the southern hemisphere, and as North Americans and European Catholics continue to dwindle in number, there is a lot of talk about choosing a pope from the southern hemisphere
–> The European with the best chance of becoming pope is a German, who is reform minded, and therefore, has no chance
–> The current pope, a staunch conservative (in papal political terms) has appointed all but a handful of the cardinals who will be voting a successor
–> The two issues facing the “southern hemisphere church”, which is growing, is a) competition against evangelical protestants in South America, and b) competition against Islam in Africa
–> Only a simple majority is required to choose a new pope
All that having been said, what should we expect from the new pope? Here’s my best guess.
He’ll be African. He’ll be staunchly conservative, probably fluent in English so that he can a) scold the bad North American Catholics directly, and b) more easily coax donations from those same Catholics. I believe that the Italian cardinals, concerned about the spread of Islam, will choose a conservative pope who is like minded. I would expect the world’s first black pope, a man who in many ways will side with the US on current foreign policy related matters, but who will cause further drift between the Church and American Catholics, whose issues such as female ordination, contraception and gay acceptance, will be squashed quite directly. In a few years time, this could lead to a split among Catholics, with a Euro-American Church run more liberally, and a Southern Hemisphere Church, run more traditionally.
Just my 2 cents. Let’s see how right I am in a few weeks time.
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4 Responses to “Pope on the Ropes”
October 2nd, 2003 at 10:02 pm
If you beleive in the papal prophecies of St. Malachy, the next pope will be the second to last. This prophesy consists of a single phrase for each pope since A.D. 1143, when the prophesy was allegedly written. It was not publicized until 1595, so many feel that it is wasn’t reallly “discovered” in 1595, but actually written then. The “hit rate” of accuracy is significantly better before 1595 than after.
The next phrase on the list is De gloria olivae (translated as “From the glory of the olive” or “Of the glory of the olive tree”). Other phrases in the list tend to be ascribed either to events of the given pope’s tenure or aspects of his character. Some think the references to olives suggest a peace maker. The olive branch is also a symbol of the Jewish race, so some think it may indicate Jewish heritage in the next pope. Still others think that it is reference to a prophesy Jesus made in his sermon on the Mount of Olives that may come to pass during this pope’s reign (see Mt. 24:6-8).
For reference, here are the past three predictions:
John Paul II: De labore solis (“From the Sun’s Labor”). JPII was born during a total solar eclipse.
John Paul I: De Medietate Lunae (“From the half moon”). JPI’s name was Albino Luciani (“from the white light”). He was a preist in Belluno (“good moon”) and died during a half moon.
Paul VI: Flos Florum (“A flower of flowers”). His coat of arms was contained three fleur-de-lys. He personally represented the spiritial flower of the three flowers.
You can see the full list here: http://www.catholic-pages.com/grabbag/malachy.asp and other places.
Wether you believe in this sort of stuff or think it is bullshit, this prophesy is worth studying, because it has some unique properties. The most interesting is that it is verifiable. If you look at Nostradamus, for example, if a prediction doesn’t fit, you can say “well, this must not have happened yet”. You cannot do this with this prophesy, because it predicts events that are known to have happened (the succession of popes), in order. Also, the prophesy is about a very specific topic, which doesn’t happen that often. The pre- and post-1595 hit rate are also interesting reading.
January 8th, 2004 at 8:11 pm
There was no immunity to cuckoo ideas on Earth.
October 1st, 2003 at 1:10 am
Sama is handicapping the next Pope. Well, I don’t want to be a pessimist, but the poor pontiff is on his last legs. I’m not Catholic, but he is a personal hero of mine. I think Rob is right and…
April 19th, 2005 at 7:48 pm
I disagree that any split can happen. “Where is Peter, there is the Church”. But besides that, the majority of current US bishops are a bunch of politically correct wimps and couldnt muster enough chutzpah to do such a thing. Also, the Euopean (especially French and Spanish) bishops are way ahead of the US in the liberal dept. and they have previously backed down.
Also, there is the simple fact that the Americans themselves don’t want it – just look at the recent votes for Marriage as it has always been. Sure there are a plenty of dissatisfied Catholics but they are in the vast minority. It just seems like they are numerous because the media helps them out so much with a lot of press. The media can’t wait for the Church to buckle but they don’t know the bible: “The gates of Hell will not prevail against it!” Jesus Christ Himself said it. I think they also don’t realize that there are many teachings of the Church that no pope (even an evil one) can change. As an example, the teaching against abortion (from the Bible) was first written about in the Didache which was written around the same time as the gospel of John (about AD 80-100), perhaps even earlier.
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