Posts Tagged ‘Predictions’

 

Predictions

Sunday, December 30th, 2012

I suppose I ought to make some predictions for the upcoming year. It’s not an election year, so I suppose the predictions won’t be about any election results (well, regular election results). But we can have some fun nevertheless. Feel free to play along at home or in the comments:

Q: What new products will Apple release?
A: Since I have already stated that they will do a watch and it has since appeared in print that they are in fact working on one, I’ll stick with that. I’ll also stick with my earlier prediction of an iPhone nano. Regarding a TV I’ll say this, if they so come out with a TV, it will be reminiscent of the new iMac, super thin with tapered edges.

Q: What will happen with the fiscal cliff?
A: We will go over it, and eventually negotiations will cease as everyone slowly realizes that this is exactly what the President wants. In other words, there will be no deal.

Q: What will happen with the debt ceiling?
A: Boehner will extend it in exchange for some token concessions or even promises of concessions some years out.

Q: How much longer does Boehner remain speaker of the house?
A: He’ll be out by Memorial Day.

Q: Who will replace Boehner as speaker of the house?
A: It will be a dark horse. Somebody unexpected.

Q: Is Hillary Clinton actually sick? What is she up to?
A: She is not sick. I think she is just done with politics, and wants out. She especially doesn’t want to answer for what happened in Bengazi, because she’s being set up to be the fall guy when she doesn’t think that what happened was her fault.

Q: Will David Gregory be prosecuted for violating Washington DC’s gun laws?
A: You’re kidding, right?

Q: Will any new gun control laws be passed at the federal level as a result of the Newtown massacre?
A: No new gun laws will pass the house, thus no new gun laws will pass.

Q: Will Scott Brown win the special election for John Kerry’s seat in Massachusetts?
A: I’m going to say no on this one. Radicals are pretty energized and they won’t let him win again. Plus Brown pissed off a lot of his base, making them less than energized.

Q: What will the price of bitcoins be at year’s end?
A: Around $30.

I guess that’s it since I can’t think of anything else. Let me know what you think. We’ll revisit this in a year as usual.

 
 

Reviewing Last Year’s Predictions

Friday, December 28th, 2012

I think I did pretty well last year. Here goes:

Q: Who will be the Republican nominee for President:
A: Mitt Romney
Result: Correct, Mitt Romney was the nominee for President.

Q: Who will win the apparent Romney-Obama matchup?
A: Obama.
Result: Correct, Obama did win the matchup.

Q: What will the electoral map look like?
A: Almost identical to 2008, though Florida may flip to the Republican column. NH will also flip. I should emphasize that this is true if Romney is the nominee, as predicted above. If Romney is not the nominee, then the electoral map will be very different.
Result: More or less correct. NH and FLorida did not flip, but Indiana did.

Q: Will the Euro survive 2012?
A: Probably, though it will be very weak by year’s end.
Result: Probably incorrect. Euro does not appear to be going anywhere.

Q: Will Scott Brown win re-election?
A: No, but it will be a close election.
Result: Correct.

Q: Who will Ron Paul endorse in the general election?
A: He will not endorse either the Republican nominee nor Gary Johnson.
Result: Correct.

Q: What percentage of the vote will Gary Johnson get in 2012?
A: Around 2%. He will break 1 million votes.
Result: Johnson did break 1 million votes, but thsi was only about 1% of the vote.

Q: Will SOPA pass and be put in to law?
A: Yes.
Result: I was wrong on this one, though it’s probably only a matter of time before something like it happens.

Q: Will the next major terrorist attack be carried out by Americans against their own government?
A: Yes, though it certainly won’t happen until after the election, and not likely to happen in 2012.
Results: No major terrorist attacks yet. This prediction was made too early. But let’s wait and see what happens as Obamacare is rolled out.

Q: What price will Bitcoins be in $US at year end?
A: $50
Results: Way off, we’ll be lucky to break $15 by year end.

 
 

Predictions 2012

Monday, January 2nd, 2012

Let’s just get right to it:

Q: Who will be the Republican nominee for President:
A: Mitt Romney

Q: Who will win the apparent Romney-Obama matchup?
A: Obama.

Q: What will the electoral map look like?
A: Almost identical to 2008, though Florida may flip to the Republican column. NH will also flip. I should emphasize that this is true if Romney is the nominee, as predicted above. If Romney is not the nominee, then the electoral map will be very different.

Q: Will the Euro survive 2012?
A: Probably, though it will be very weak by year’s end.

Q: Will Scott Brown win re-election?
A: No, but it will be a close election.

Q: Who will Ron Paul endorse in the general election?
A: He will not endorse either the Republican nominee nor Gary Johnson.

Q: What percentage of the vote will Gary Johnson get in 2012?
A: Around 2%. He will break 1 million votes.

Q: Will SOPA pass and be put in to law?
A: Yes.

Q: Will the next major terrorist attack be carried out by Americans against their own government?
A: Yes, though it certainly won’t happen until after the election, and not likely to happen in 2012.

Q: What price will Bitcoins be in $US at year end?
A: $50

 
 

Predictions 2011 Revisited

Monday, January 2nd, 2012

I should revisit the things I predicted in 2011. What will the official unemployment rate be on December 31, 2011?

Q: What will the official unemployment rate be on December 31, 2011?
A: Between 9% and 9.5%.
Reality: The official number is 8.5%, but it will likely be revised upwards. Of course, Shadowstats says it’s more like 15%.

Q: Where will the Dow close at next year?
A: Under 12,000.
Reality: Closed at 12,200.

Q: Will Apple’s new Verizon iPhone be 3G or 4G?
A: 3G. Expect 4G phones to be released over the summer.
Reality: No 4g phone has been released by Apple, on Verizon or elsewhere.

Q: Name the top three candidates the Republican establishment will back for the 2012 Presidential nomination:
A: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune.
Reality: It’s Romney.

Q: Name the top three Republicans the Tea Party will get behind for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination:
A: Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels.
Reality: None of my picks chose to run. So the Tea Party vote appears to be split.

Q: Will an Android Tablet catch up to the iPad in sales this year?
A: Not a chance. Maybe 2012 if they’re lucky.
Reality: No Android tablet.

Q: Name three things that will jump the shark in 2011:
A: Silly Bands, Lady Gaga, Brick and Mortar Bookstores
Reality: I have no idea if Silly Bands jumped the shark. Lady Gaga appears to still be going strong, but brick and mortar bookstores are certainly a thing of the past.

Q: Will the home market enter a double dip recession next year? Will it recover?
A: No and no. The market will remain stagnant through the next year.
Reality: I appear to be on target here.

Q: Will we be out of the recession next year, from a colloquial, average man on the street point of view?
A: No. People are really tired of this recession, and may start making business decisions again, but the economy will not be in enough of a recovery such that the average man on the street feels good again.
Reality: The recession continues unabated.

Q: Will I become a father again in 2011?
A: Yes, sometime around July 17.
Reality: It happened on July 22.

I’ll post some new predictions in a bit.

 
 

Predictions 2011

Thursday, January 6th, 2011

Ok, let’s try our hand at ten predictions for 2011. It’s probably a good idea to bet against be as my predictions were so wrong last year. You can let me know if you agree with my predictions or not in the comments, and if you have anything you’d like me to prognosticate about, ask me in the comments, on twitter or in the formspring form in the sidebar.

So without further adieu:

  1. Q: What will the official unemployment rate be on December 31, 2011?
    A: Between 9% and 9.5%.
  2. Q: Where will the Dow close at next year?
    A: Under 12,000.
  3. Q: Will Apple’s new Verizon iPhone be 3G or 4G?
    A: 3G. Expect 4G phones to be released over the summer.
  4. Q: Name the top three candidates the Republican establishment will back for the 2012 Presidential nomination:
    A: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune.
  5. Q: Name the top three Republicans the Tea Party will get behind for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination:
    A: Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels.
  6. Q: Will an Android Tablet catch up to the iPad in sales this year?
    A: Not a chance. Maybe 2012 if they’re lucky.
  7. Q: Name three things that will jump the shark in 2011:
    A: Silly Bands, Lady Gaga, Brick and Mortar Bookstores
  8. Q: Will the home market enter a double dip recession next year? Will it recover?
    A: No and no. The market will remain stagnant through the next year.
  9. Q: Will we be out of the recession next year, from a colloquial, average man on the street point of view?
    A: No. People are really tired of this recession, and may start making business decisions again, but the economy will not be in enough of a recovery such that the average man on the street feels good again.
  10. Q: Will I become a father again in 2011?
    A: Yes, sometime around July 17.
 
 

I’m Lame

Thursday, January 6th, 2011

I failed to generate any Christmas post this year or even a New Year’s retrospective as I’ve done every year since I’ve been blogging. I suppose I could still do that, but the new year is over. However, I should at least have the decency to review my predictions from last year. I did pretty terribly:

  1. Q: What will the official unemployment rate be on December 31, 2010?
    A: Above 10%.
    Result: Close but wrong. It’s hovering under 10% as of year end, at least according to official numbers.
  2. Q: Where will the Dow close at next year?
    A: Under 10,000.
    Result: Wrong again, Dow closed the year at 11,577.
  3. Q: What will the price of gold be on December 31, 2010?
    A: Close to $2,000/oz.
    Result: Wrong again. Gold closed the year at about $1400/oz.
  4. Q: Assuming Apple releases a tablet computing device this year, will it be revolutionary like the iPhone, or an also-ran like the appleTV?
    A: Also ran like the appleTV.
    Result: Wrong again. The iPad is revolutionary, and is inspiring many competitors. They’ve defined a new category.
  5. Q: How close will the special Senate election in Massachusetts be? Will Scott Brown be able to beat Democrat Martha Coakley?
    A: Within 10%. Scott Brown will narrowly lose the race.
    Results: Wrong again. Scott Brown won, and is the Senator from Massachusetts.
  6. Q: Will the Republicans gain control of the house or senate in 2010?
    A: Yes and yes.
    Results: Right and wrong. They have control of the House, not the Senate. Though one might argue that they have de-facto control of the Senate.
  7. Q: Will Harry Reid or Barbara Boxer keep their senate seats in 2010?
    A: No and yes.
    Results: Wrong and right. Both kept their seats, incredibly enough.
  8. Q: Name three things that will jump the shark in 2010?
    A: Congressional Democrats, the TSA, facebook.
    Results: Right, Right and Wrong. Facebook keeps going strong. But the TSA has turned themselves into a laughing stock. Groping genitals made them jump the shark, and I expect that the new congress will legislate changes to the TSA.
  9. Q: Will Janet Napolitano keep her job in 2010? Will Hillary Clinton?
    A: No and yes.
    Results: Wrong and right. Though Napolitano deserves to go, Obama won’t cut her. And Hillary remained as predicted.
  10. Q: Will confidence in the US dollar erode, or will hyperinflation occur in 2010?
    A: If it does, it will be an all-at-once event. It will not be a gradual occurrence.
    Results: It didn’t happen, but I maintain that if it should happen, it will happen all of a sudden, not gradually.

So that’s it. A pretty awful round of predictions all told. I’ll see if I have some time to come up with some new ones before the week is out. Happy New Year everybody!

 
 

Predictions? Take the bait.

Monday, January 4th, 2010

Ok, so it’s the first week of the new year, and so I figure I’ll make a few predictions for the next year. I did well enough last year I suppose, especially since I came up with the questions myself. If you’d like, grab my questions and play along for yourself:

  1. Q: What will the official unemployment rate be on December 31, 2010?
    A: Above 10%.
  2. Q: Where will the Dow close at next year?
    A: Under 10,000.
  3. Q: What will the price of gold be on December 31, 2010?
    A: Close to $2,000/oz.
  4. Q: Assuming Apple releases a tablet computing device this year, will it be revolutionary like the iPhone, or an also-ran like the appleTV?
    A: Also ran like the appleTV.
  5. Q: How close will the special Senate election in Massachusetts be? Will Scott Brown be able to beat Democrat Martha Coakley?
    A: Within 10%. Scott Brown will narrowly lose the race.
  6. Q: Will the Republicans gain control of the house or senate in 2010?
    A: Yes and yes.
  7. Q: Will Harry Reid or Barbara Boxer keep their senate seats in 2010?
    A: No and yes.
  8. Q: Name three things that will jump the shark in 2010?
    A: Congressional Democrats, the TSA, facebook.
  9. Q: Will Janet Napolitano keep her job in 2010? Will Hillary Clinton?
    A: No and yes.
  10. Q: Will confidence in the US dollar erode, or will hyperinflation occur in 2010?
    A: If it does, it will be an all-at-once event. It will not be a gradual occurrence.

Ok, that’s it. We’ll revisit this next year!

 
 

End Of Year Predictions Review

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

So I made some predictions last year. Let’s see how well I fared:

  1. I predicted that the Dow would end the year at or under 9,500. I would have to say I called that one incorrectly. The Dow looks to be ending the year around 10,500.
  2. I predicted that Al Franken would be seated as the senator from Minnesota. That prediction was correct.
  3. I predicted that American Idol, Top Chef and Blu-Ray would all jump the shark. I think that Americal Idol is still jumping the shark, Top Chef has not jumped, and Blu-Ray is well gone.
  4. I predicted that NY Governor Paterson would not appoint Caroline Kennedy to the open Senate seat. I was correct in that prediction.
  5. I predicted Steve Jobs would not die from his “hormone imbalance” but that he would not be fully recovered by next year. I think I called that one pretty well.
  6. I predicted that Obama’s approval ratings would fall below 50% after 250 days in office. Given that his disapproval ratings are now above 50%, I think it’s fair to say I called that one correctly.
  7. I predicted Rod Blagojevich would remain governor of Illinois. I was wrong on that one.
  8. I predicted the unemployment rate would be 9.5% as of year end. It’s apparently 9.4%. I think I called that.
  9. I predicted we would not see another major terrorist attack in 2009, as defined as one that kills over 100 people. I was wrong, a bombing in Iraq killed 120+ people in the fall.
  10. I predicted the dollar would continue to fall in 2009, and it has.
  11. I predicted that Sirius/XM and the New York times would each go out of business without major financial interventions. Both saw such interventions this year, from Liberty Media and Carlos Slim respectively. So I think I called that.
  12. I predicted that the baseball season would seem insufferably long again this season, and it did.
  13. I predicted that people would continue to be worried about the end of the world in 2012, and they do seem to be.
  14. I predicted that the War on Christmas would still be on in 2009, and I was right. See here, here, here, here, and here.

Ok, that’s it. I’ll make new predictions early next week for 2010.

 
 

50%

Friday, July 24th, 2009

From my predictions entry:

Q: How many days will Obama be in office before his approval ratings drop below 50%?
A: 250.

Today is the 205th day of the year. So I’m not that far off. No president stays above 50% for very long. Most people hold their noses when they vote. It’s something that Obama boosters have never quite grasped.

Read the poll results here.

 
 

Predictions? Take The Bait

Thursday, January 8th, 2009

Just scanning around, I noticed I made some predictions last year for the coming new year. Mostly, I just took someone else’s multiple choices and gave my own answers. I guessed the Democratic ticket correctly, but got most everything else pretty wrong. Maybe I should just stick to making Mac predictions.

Alternatively, maybe I should come up with my own list or questions, and predict answers now. Play along in the comments or your own blog (like Asteroid did last year) if you want:

  1. Q: Where will the Dow be by December 31, 2009?
    A: Under 9500.
  2. Q: Who will be finally seated as senator from Minnesota in the coming year?
    A: Al Franken.
  3. Q: Name 3 things that will officially “jump the shark” in 2009:
    A: American Idol, Top Chef, Blu-Ray
  4. Q: Will NY Governor David Paterson appoint Caroline Kennedy to the open NY senate seat?
    A: No.
  5. Q: Will Steve Jobs recover from his hormone imbalance? Will he die this year?
    A: Not completely. Not likely.
  6. Q: How many days will Obama be in office before his approval ratings drop below 50%?
    A: 250.
  7. Q: Will Rod Blagojevich be ousted from office as Governor of Illinois this year? If so, when?
    A: No. N/A.
  8. Q: What will the unemployment rate be on December 31, 2009?
    A: 9.5%.
  9. Q: Will there be another major (>100 deaths) terrorist attack this year? If so, where?
    A: No. N/A
  10. Q: The US Dollar will rise or fall compared to the Euro? The Canadian Loonie? Gold? The Zimbabwean Dollar?
    A: Fall. Fall. Fall. To close to call.
  11. Q: Will satellite radio (Sirius/XM) go out of business this year? Will the New York Times?
    A: Yes on both counts. Satellite radio may stop broadcasting, but expect the NY Times to keep publishing after it’s sold at a discount to George Soros or equivalent.
  12. Q: Will the Baseball season will seem insufferably long again next year?
    A: Yes.
  13. Q: Will people continue to be worried about the end of the world in 2012?
    A: Yes, except for idiots planning to run for President then.
  14. Q: Will the War on Christmas still be going on in December 2009?
    A: Yes.

There you have it.